Yichang Transportation (002627)： Q3 deducted non-attributed net profit increased greatly, endogenous extension extended steadily
Yichang Transportation (002627): Q3 deducted non-attributed net profit increased greatly, endogenous extension extended steadily
On October 28th, the company released three quarterly reports and achieved operating income of 16.
94 ppm, a ten-year increase1.
32%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 1.
09 million yuan, an increase of 23 in ten years.
29%, realized net profit deducted from non-attributed mother 9809.
460,000 yuan, an increase of 65 in ten years.
The performance maintained a steady growth, and the net profit attributable to mothers increased substantially in the third quarter. The company’s net profit attributable to mothers increased year by year in the first three quarters.
29%, net profit after deducting non-attributed mothers increased by 65 each year.
09%, maintaining a good growth trend since the first half of this year, the growth rate of net profit after deducting non-return to motherhood has further increased compared with the first half.
In the third quarter of Q3, the company realized deduction of non-returned net profit of 4381.
40,000 yuan, an increase of about 82 in ten years.
3%, faster growth.
In the first three quarters, the company’s gross profit margin reached 16.
17%, an increase of 2 per year.
95pct, of which Q3 single quarter gross margin reached 17.
27%, an increase of 3 per year.
27pct, the main business operations have further improved.
In terms of expenses, the company’s sales expense ratio was 1 in the first three quarters.
99%, ten years +0.
Management expense ratio 5.
19%, ten years +0.
26 points, R & D expenses increased by 46 this year.
Finance expense ratio is 0.
77% per year.
The expense end maintains a stable and robust overall, and the decline in the growth rate of financial expense rate is mainly due to the company’s adjustment of the financing structure, optimization of the financing model, replacement of short-term repetition with long-term loans, and unified allocation of funds.
In the first three quarters, the company’s net operating cash flow was 1892.
10,000 yuan, -2 in the same period last year.
32 trillion, a significant improvement.
Judging from the main matters, accounts receivable increased 214 earlier.
51%, mainly due to the increase in tourist group and road passenger transportation business and ticket prices.
Construction in progress increased by 47.
53%, mainly related to the East Station Logistics Center, Songzi Bus Station, Yidu New Bus Station and other engineering expenses.
The tourism business continued to be overweight, and the endogenous and extension of the company promoted the transformation and upgrading of the company’s deep cultivation of the regional transportation market. The transportation strength and influence have changed. In the past two years, the company’s comprehensive tourism business has been deployed in multiple locations to build an integrated tourism service enterprise.
In terms of business, the tourism service revenue accounted for 9 in 2019.36%, which is basically the same as the 2018 report. The tourism service revenue share in 2018 increased by 1 compared with 2017.
2019 Interim Report on Commerce and Logistics Revenue accounts for 17.
61%, an increase of 2.
57pct, multi-business layout trend is obvious.
The company diversified and promoted the transformation and upgrading. In May this year, the company announced that it will issue shares to acquire 100% equity of Jiufenggu Scenic Spot. In August, it completed asset delivery and completed the acquisition. In cooperation with Yangtze Power, it invested 90 million yuan in research and development to build the Yangtze Three Gorges pure electric sightseeing cruise; Signed a port and shore power cooperation agreement with State Grid Yichang.
Jiufenggu Scenic Area has better growth and is also located in the Three Gorges area, which can form a better synergy effect with the company.
Yangtze Power, the partner of the sightseeing cruise project, is rich in resources and continuously strengthened in Yichang. It is expected that this project will greatly enhance the tourism experience and quality.
Cooperation with the State Grid Yichang’s shore power project is also expected to further improve port profitability.
Broad development space for comprehensive tourism business The company is currently committed to building a tourism transportation service system, introducing tourism line products, and deepening the layout of tourism business.
The tourism transportation service system will rely on the company’s rich tourism transportation operation experience, and the goal is to build a tourism transportation service system that radiates “one river and two mountains”.
At present, the company 厦门夜网 has completed the urban “one main two deputies” urban tourism distribution center.
At the same time, the construction of a “one main and four auxiliary” tourist passenger port station system is underway, and projects such as the “Three Gorges International Cruise Center Terminal” are already under construction. The port reconstruction is also actively promoting functional upgrades. At the same time, the company actively launches tourist route products.The luxury cruise ships and more than 160 luxury tourist buses have successively launched “Transportation * Two Dams and One Gorge”, “Transportation * Attractions Through Train”, “Transportation * Yangtze River Night Tour”, “Transportation * Shiplift”, etc.High-quality tourism products; in the future, the company will continue to deepen the tourism business layout, including co-investment with Hubei Shennong Tourism Investment Group to establish the Shennong Tourism Passenger Transport Company, and cooperation with the Yangtze River Three Gorges Tourism Development Company to promote “one area, four towns” and “two dams and one gorge””, And promote the construction of Jiufenggu Scenic Area and the construction of electric sightseeing cruise ships.
The company has natural regional tourism resource endowment, policy advantages, advantages of main industry influence change, strong partners in new energy and other fields. In the future, it will actively promote the transformation to integrated tourism business, with growth space and potential potential.
Investment suggestion: It is expected that the company’s main business will continue to develop steadily in the next two years, with stable and innovative auto sales services and delivery business, focusing on the development of logistics business, and continuing to increase the travel business, with continuous growth potential.
It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.
48 yuan, currently expected corresponding PE is 25X, 21X, 19X, maintaining the “overweight” level.
Risk reminders: road passenger transportation and tourism service traffic safety risks; downside risks in the transportation market; competition risks for tourism service companies in the Yangtze River Delta; subordinate companies’ management integration risks.
Hengrun (603985) Comment Report： Gross profit margin expected to recover slightly, expected performance growth expected unchanged
Hengrun (603985) Comment Report: Gross profit margin expected to recover slightly, expected performance growth expected unchanged
The company announced its 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarter report, and the company realized revenue in 201811.
8.5 billion (+ 60% YoY).
03%); realize net profit attributable to mother 1.
2.5 billion (+ 37% YoY).
2019Q1 company achieved revenue 2.
6.4 billion (YoY + 21.
43%); realized net profit attributable to mother 0.
2.3 billion (YoY-14.
Opinion: Hengrun Forging’s revenue rises and rises under the influence of increasing production capacity, but the gross profit margin is subject to the decline of raw materials.
Hengrun Forging Co., Ltd. achieved revenue in 20186.
6.2 billion (+ 38% YoY).
34%), due to the company’s full orders, production capacity increased (ring forging casting volume in 20173.
4 billion tons, sintering volume of ring forging in 2018 5.
100 深圳spa会所 million tons) directly boosted the company’s ring forging revenue growth.
However, the rise in the prices of steel-based raw materials has caused the overall cost of ring forging to rise by 62%.
33%, causing the gross profit margin of the ring forging business to drop by 11.
Among them, the gross profit margin of the wind power industry flange overlapped by 10 compared with the same period last year.
Revenue from forged flanges increased and gross profit margin rose steadily.
At the beginning of 2018, Hengrun’s small forging plant realized revenue3.
10,000 yuan (+67 compared with the same period last year).
95%), of which forged flanges achieved revenue 2.
6.8 billion (+ 70% YoY).
45%), other free forgings achieved zero revenue.
3.2 billion (+49 year-on-year.
From the 天津夜网 perspective of gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of small forgings has steadily increased, and the overall gross profit margin is 28.
04%, an increase of 5 over the same period last year.
The decline in gross profit margin is the main reason for the increase in net profit in Q1 2019. However, we believe that the company’s performance growth trend has not changed.
Expense rate during 2019Q1 was 13.
41%, compared with 13 in the same period last year.
75% is basically the same. We judge that the structural changes in research and development expenses and selling expenses in the expenses during the period are not the main reason for the change in company performance.From the perspective of gross profit margin, the company’s consolidated gross profit margin in Q1 2019 was 22.
75%, 6 points over the same period last year.
We think this is the main factor that causes the company’s net profit to decrease year by year in the first quarter of 2019.
However, from our forecast of future changes in the company’s gross margin trend, we judge that the company’s gross profit margin in 2019 will increase by 3pct compared to 2018 due to the increase in the company’s Haifeng order price and the increase in the contribution of Guangke’s high gross margin performance.
Therefore, we believe that the company’s expected performance growth trend has not changed, and it is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent in advance is expected to achieve a growth rate of 50% +.
Profit forecast and estimation: Considering the company’s full offshore wind power orders and the peak of offshore wind power construction in the next two years, under the assumption that the subsidiary Guangke has completed its performance commitments, we give the company EPS forecasts for the first time in 19-21 are 1.
17 yuan, corresponding to the current price-earnings ratio of 11.
The first coverage gave it a “strong recommendation” investment rating, giving it a target price of 27 at P / E of 15 times.
Risk warning: major changes in offshore wind power policy; wind power flange price drop; Guangke’s performance is less than expected.
Jinhe Industry (002597) In-Depth Tracking Report： Sugar Replacement has generally become a trend, optimistic about the global sweetener leader
Jinhe Industry (002597) In-Depth Tracking Report: Sugar Replacement has generally become a trend, optimistic about the global sweetener leader
Core point of view The company is a global sweetener leader, with production capacity advantages and integrated production to build cost barriers.Benefiting from the future increase in demand for new sweeteners and the improvement of the industry’s competitive landscape, the sweetener business is expected to drive the company’s rapid growth and is optimistic about the company’s long-term development.Expected net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-21.90/9.49/11.49 trillion, giving the company a target market value of 166 trillion in 2019, corresponding to a target price of 29.7 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Global sweetener leader, cost advantage is prominent.The company’s main sweeteners (Acesulfame, Sucralose), flavors (methyl, styrene maltol) and basic chemicals, the sweeteners and flavors achieved revenue in 201817.500 million, accounting for 42% of total revenue.The company’s production capacity of sweeteners and flavors leads the world: Ansaimi has an annual output of 1.2 Initially, it is in the absolute leading position in the world; sucralose has an annual output of 3,000 tons, ranking second in the world; maltol has an annual output of 4,000 tons, accounting for 24% of the world’s total.The company also prepares its own raw material capacity for various products such as sweeteners, flavors, etc., and the production cost is much lower than that.With economies of scale and integrated production, the company’s cost advantage is prominent and a moat is formed. Sugar replacement is generally a trend, and annual demand growth will be 20% in the future.It is expected that under the dual drive of increased consumer demand for low sugar intake and reduced cost for beverage manufacturers, sweeteners will increase and enhance the substitution of sucrose, and we judge that the growth space will more than double.New sweeteners such as acesulfame and sucralose are expected to bring safety, taste and other advantages, and gradually replace traditional sweeteners such as saccharin. The growth space has more than tripled. The growth rate is expected to reach 20% in the next three years.The company’s headquarters, Acemi, is the leader in the sucralose 都市夜网 industry and is expected to fully enjoy the growth dividend. Integrated production of basic chemicals, waiting for the boom to pick up.The company’s basic chemical business has continued to extend the industrial chain, forming an integrated production model that uses coal as a raw material and further produces melamine, hydrogen peroxide, nitric acid, ammonium carbonate and other products in the simultaneous production of ammonia and alcohol.At present, the company’s industries in which many basic chemicals are located are overcapacity and scattered, and prices have dropped significantly in early 2019.We judge that starting in 2020, the gradual clearance will be gradually realized, and the price of chemical products is expected to usher in a modest upward trend.The company’s cost advantage is prominent, waiting for the industry boom to pick up. Risk factors: 1) Deteriorating competition pattern exceeds expectations; 2) Product prices have fallen sharply; 3) New capacity is released less than expected; 4) Food safety risks. Investment suggestion: The company is a global sweetener leader, with production capacity advantages and integrated production to build cost barriers.Benefiting from the future increase in demand for new sweeteners and the improvement of the industry’s competitive landscape, the sweetener business is expected to drive the company’s rapid growth and is optimistic about the company’s long-term development.Due to the expected tightening of supply caused by the safety rectification of Jiangsu chemical companies, we believe that the price of sweetener products is expected to grow faster than expected, raising the company’s net profit attributable to mothers to 7 in 2019-21.90/9.49/11.4.9 billion yuan (previous forecast was 7).02/8.39/9.60ppm), corresponding EPS is 1.41/170/2.06 yuan.The segment estimates give the company a target market value of 16.6 billion in 2019 (corresponding to 21 times PE in 2019), and raise the target price to 29.7 yuan (original target price of 24.5 yuan), maintain “Buy” rating.
The expansion of the ChiNext board and the registration system of the GEM are necessary to try segmented management
The expansion of the ChiNext board and the registration system of the GEM are necessary to try segmented management
It is necessary for GEM to turn around to register. It is necessary to try to manage the stock market in stages. With the extension of the science and technology board, the GEM clearly shows the lack of system design.In order for GEM to implement a registration system, it is necessary to implement hierarchical management. Since the announcement of the decision to launch the science and technology board and the trial registration system, the process of the introduction of the science and technology board has become one of the focus of the capital market.On the evening of March 1, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Yi Huiman, issued the first presidential order for the first time since taking office.(Trial) was officially launched.This means that the landing of the science and technology board will soon be completed. With the expansion of the science and technology board, the A-share market’s hype for science and technology concept stocks has also set off waves.In its name, the role of GEM is slightly awkward.Although the GEM is mainly positioned as the cradle for the listing of entrepreneurial and high-tech enterprises, GEM has clearly shown inadequate institutional design in the process of restructuring the listing of new economic enterprises.Once the science and technology board is launched, the competitive pressure on the GEM will become more apparent.With a large number of science and technology innovation companies from all over the country rushing to choose to go to the science and technology board for listing, the future GEM will inevitably have the worry of “abandoning the front door”. According to the official website of the Guangdong Provincial Government, Guangdong will ask the CSRC to accelerate the implementation of the GEM reform and pilot registration system, and relax the issuance strategy so that the future GEM and Sci-Tech Board can maintain basic systems such as listing and listing.Consistent.This means that the implementation of the registration system reform on GEM will be the general trend. First, the 杭州桑拿 implementation of the registration system reform on the Growth Enterprise Market will help the capital market support the development of the real economy.For example, the current GEM, like the entire A-share market, does not support the listing of replacement companies and companies with different rights in the same share.However, if the GEM is reformed and the GEM issuance and listing conditions are docked with the Science and Technology Innovation Board, it can obviously meet the requirements for more companies to be listed, and it will be more conducive to supporting the listing and financing of the real economy, thereby better supporting the development of the real economy. In fact, the implementation of the registration system reform on the GEM is conducive to enhancing competition on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.With the launch 杭州桑拿网 of the science and technology board, the competitiveness of the Shanghai Stock Exchange has increased significantly.This not only gives the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange an advantage, but also allows the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and the competition between the New York Stock Exchange to be strengthened.Relatively speaking, the disadvantages of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are quite obvious.To reverse this disadvantage and strengthen competition on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, it is necessary to implement a registration system reform on the Growth Enterprise Market. In addition, Shenzhen is the forefront of China’s reform and opening up, and it is also a young city developed during the process of reform and opening up.Therefore, in the face of the reform of the capital market, there is no reason for the Shenzhen Stock Exchange not to catch up.In fact, in order to meet the needs of new economic company listing and to meet the needs of the development of the NEEQ market, in recent years, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has been actively promoting the reform of the GEM.Therefore, in the face of the pressure brought by the launch of the science and technology board, it is necessary for the GEM to accelerate the pace of reform and implement the registration system reform as soon as possible. However, as far as the dating registration system is concerned, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange also needs to distinguish the differences between the GEM and the science and technology board.After all, the science and technology board is a blank piece of paper, which can draw a variety of the latest and most beautiful pictures, and the system design can also be started from scratch. Similarly, the science and technology board has set 500,000 capital information for entering the market, which to some extent took into accountInvestors’ ability to take risks.However, the GEM is not a piece of paper. There are more than 760 listed companies, and there is no limit of 500,000 yuan to invest in the genes of the GEM.Therefore, to implement the registration system on the GEM, the actual situation of the GEM also needs to be considered. How should GEM implement the registration reform?The author believes that it is necessary to implement hierarchical management of the GEM.Finally, the existing GEM is incorporated into the base layer, and the listing conditions remain unchanged from the current conditions.At the same time, an innovation layer can be added, and the relevant listing system and supervision system are docked with the science and technology board.This is a relatively practicable way to implement the registration reform of the GEM. □ Pi Haizhou (financial commentator)
Supor (002032): SEB boosts product brand growth
Backed by the technology input of the SEB brand, the revenue performance has grown steadily. For the first time, it has covered the “buy” rating. Supor is backed by the technology and brand input of the SEB Group, which contributes to sustained and stable growth.In 杭州夜生活网 terms of domestic sales, the domestic kitchen small appliances field has a relatively stable competition pattern. Midea, Supor, and Jiuyang have a relatively leading market share in the three leading markets. In the field of cookware, the company actively expands its product line to guide consumer demand upgrades, or it will benefit from the cookware industryThe trend of diversified demand; in terms of export, thanks to the transfer of orders from the parent company to maintain a steady growth, the synergy between Supor and SEB will be improved in the future, and it is expected that there is broad room for improvement in export.In addition, due to the parent company’s high-end products and brands injected and nurtured, Supor’s product structure is continuously optimized, and profitability is expected to further improve.The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 2.36, 2.77, 3.22 yuan, the first coverage given a “buy” rating. The domestic market competition pattern is relatively large and stable, or it will benefit from the rise of diversified demand. In terms of domestic sales, the competition pattern in the small kitchen appliance sector is stable. The United States and the Soviet Union are divided into three markets.; In the field of cooking utensils, the market needs to develop in a diversified direction. Only companies that continue to improve their professionalism and launch targeted products according to different market needs can win the competition.Supor’s own product technology reserves are too much, and it is included in the parent company SEB Group to replace the company’s brand and product.In summary, the expansion of the company’s product development and design capabilities is expected to continue to benefit from the doubling of market demand. Export sales have benefited from the transfer of orders from the parent company, and the room for growth is broad. The parent company SEB Group has continuously transferred orders to the company since its acquisition of Supor. According to the company’s annual report, the interrelated transactions in 2018 have continued to increase.77%, with a total amount of 46.3.4 billion.We believe that the domestic kitchen appliances and cooking utensils production supporting capabilities are leading the world. In the future, the internal synergy effect of the conversion of Supor and SEB will increase. It is expected that SEB will transfer more orders to the company, and there is broad scope for increasing the amount of interconnected transactions. The injection of high-end brands and products drives the profitability to steadily increase the reorganization of the parent company SEB Group, which will enable advanced technology and products to empower Supor, thereby merging them into high-end brands such as WMF, Krups and LAGOSTINA.The injection of mid- to high-end products and brands into Supor’s multi-brand matrix has taken shape, and will be dedicated to driving the company’s product structure to continue to optimize, and the overall profitability will steadily increase. Continue to benefit from the synergy of major shareholders and give a “buy” rating. We expect the company’s net profit growth rate to be attributable to its mothers to be 16-2019.07%, 17.23% and 16.42%, corresponding to EPS2.36, 2.77, 3.22 yuan.As of September 6, 2019, the average PE of comparable companies in Wind in 2019 is expected to be 25.56 times.The company’s internal sales structure is stable, or it will benefit from the continuous growth of demand diversification; the export company’s parent company orders are steadily transferred, and the growth space is broad; the CAGR of net profit of more than ten years has reached 21.56%, maintaining a relatively rapid growth while maintaining a relatively stable growth rate.Considering the recognition of the company’s excellent fundamental performance and growth stability, the recognition is given to the company 31-33x PE in 2019, corresponding to the target price of 73.16-77.88 yuan, the first coverage given a “buy” rating. Risk reminders: 1) intensified market competition; 2) rising raw material prices; 3) the increase in the amount of related party transactions exceeds expectations; 4) the potential compliance legal risks of related party transactions.
Guizhou Moutai (600519) Review for the first quarter of 2019： higher-than-expected high-increasing product structure to enhance thickening performance
Guizhou Moutai (600519) Review for the first quarter of 2019: higher-than-expected high-increasing product structure to enhance thickening performance
This report reads: The company ‘s first quarter revenue, profit exceeded market expectations, and advance receipts were relatively stable, showing once again the company ‘s ability to release performance, while the potential for subsequent performance release remains.It is expected that the improvement of product structure and the increase of direct sales ratio will continue to increase performance. Investment points: Investment advice: The company’s revenue and profit will further exceed market expectations after the performance forecast. The advance payment will be relatively stable. The company once again demonstrates its ability to release performance, while the potential for subsequent performance release remains.Taking into account the improvement of the product structure and the increase in the proportion of direct sales, the company’s EPS for 2019-2020 is raised to 35.32, 42.63, 50.45 yuan (33 before).36, 40.33, 47.52 yuan), with a target price of 1,120 yuan, corresponding to the 2019 32X PE, an increase in holdings. Both revenue and profit exceeded the forecast value of performance.In Q1 2019, the net profit attributable to mothers was 22.5 billion and 11.2 billion, an increase of 22% and 32%, exceeding the performance forecast of 20% and an increase of about 30%.Moutai’s revenue was 19.5 billion. According to the formula (consolidation cost-parent company cost) / (1-forecasted gross profit margin), Q1 revenue was additionally recognized by the previous period of about 2.5 billion, and the ton price increased slightly by 5% due to non-standard increase.Wine Q1 is about 8,000 tons.Series wine is 2.1 billion, corresponding to about 7,900 tons.At the end of the quarter, advance receipts were 11.4 billion, a decrease of 2.2 billion quarter-on-quarter, and 1.8 billion every other. The advance receipts were slow and 四川耍耍网 overlapping. We found that in mid-March, the dealers had paid for the goods from April to June and the payment for personalized wine.About 17 billion yuan, after deducting advance receipts, additional recognition of 2.5 billion in the previous period and a decrease of 2.2 billion quarter-on-quarter are roughly corresponding to 11.4 billion advance receipts.Sales revenue now increased by 18%, matching revenue growth. Both gross profit margin and net profit margin increased.The gross profit margin of alcoholic beverages was 92%, which increased by 0 in ten years.8 points, the net profit attributable to the mother is 50%, which exceeds the increase by 3.7 points.The proportion of tax revenue is reduced by 3 every year.3pct, which is related to the recognition of the previous period of income, and is expected to recover in advance;4pct, the management expense rate drops by 0 every year.16 points.The number of dealers decreased by 533, of which the series of liquor and Moutai decreased by 494 and 39 respectively.The 2019 distribution contract has been signed, and the large-scale rectification of Moutai liquor dealers has basically ended.The reorganization of the series of wine dealers will help consolidate the development quality of the series of wines. Catalyst: The price of Moutai liquor is stable; the ex-factory price is further raised. Risk Warning: The price of Moutai has risen sharply.
Xugong Machinery (000425)： Development to a new level, performance rebounded + national reform expectations
Xugong Machinery (000425): Development to a new level, performance rebounded + national reform expectations
King of lifting machinery, integrated development of “one core and multiple”.
The company is a giant in construction machinery, and the market share of many categories of products ranks first in the industry.
The market share of mobile cranes ranks first in the world, and its leading advantages are consolidated.
In 2018, the company’s pavers, road rollers, and grader road construction machinery products ranked first in the industry.
Rotary drilling rigs, horizontal directional drilling and two drilling products both rank first in the domestic industry, and two-wheel milling and tunnel boring machines jump to the first in the domestic market.
Taking advantage of the recovery of the industry, the leading performance rose strongly.
Demand is picking up. In 2017/2018, domestic truck crane sales increased by 130% / 58% annually.
The shares continue to be concentrated to the first manufacturer, and the car / track / crane CR3 is about 94% / 85% / 80% respectively.
In 2018, the company achieved net profit attributable to mothers20.
55 ppm, an increase of 102 in ten years.
ROE continued to rise to 7.
In Q1 2019, the net profit reached 10.
53 trillion, with an increase of 97.
22%, continued strong growth.
Demand is optimistic, and the industry boom is expected to continue.
According to our calculations, the sales volume of truck cranes for domestic enterprises will increase by about 34% each year in 2019.
The main driving force comes from the still optimistic downstream demand: 1. The growth rate of infrastructure investment has continued to rebound since bottoming in October last year, and real estate investment in 2019Q1 is still strong.
The macro investment is positive, which is the direct driving force for the increase in demand for construction machinery; 2. In terms of demand structure, 19 years is still at the peak of the old machine update.
It is estimated that the share of renewal demand accounts for nearly 60% of the total sales volume; 3. From the perspective of the OEM’s microcredit, the amount of off-balance sheet repurchase guarantee obligations and on-balance sheet revenue account balances account for revenue exceeding the top credit expansion period of the previous cycle.
The margin of OEM credit security is still sufficient, and downstream purchases are becoming more rational.
The reform of the country has accelerated, and a new life is expected.
Xingong Group, the company’s controlling shareholder, is one of the companies divided into “Double Hundred Actions”.
“Double Hundred Actions” will focus on improving the corporate legal person governance structure, improving market-oriented operating mechanisms, actively 青岛夜网 and prudently diversifying equity and mixed ownership reforms, and improving incentive and restraint mechanisms.
We believe that through the Double Hundred Action of State Reform, the company’s production and operating expenses and product profitability will be effectively digested and improved.
The company’s development is expected to reach a new level.
Profit forecast and estimation.
It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 37.
8.1 billion yuan, EPS 0.
7 yuan / share, corresponding to the current price of PE 9.
Covered for the first time, giving “overweight” rating.
Risk reminder: rapid growth in infrastructure investment and real estate investment, the sharp decline in sales of construction machinery; rapid expansion of sales credit, reducing the flexibility of terminal profits; increased competition in the industry, and the company’s market share.
Tiankang Biological (002100) Investment Value Analysis Report: Xinjiang Regional Livestock Leader
Core point of view The company’s vaccine, feed, and agricultural product processing business is limited by the impact of the disease. It is expected to remain stable in 19/20. The three major businesses correspond to a market value of about 6.6 billion. The pig breeding layout is Xinjiang, Henan, and definitive replacement is expected. In 20/21/22, it can achieve 90/150/212 / 2.5 million delisting. According to the average profit of 600 in 2020, 10 times PE will be given. Maintain “Buy” rating and target price of 15.
Xinjiang’s leading animal husbandry in the whole industry chain.
The company is a subsidiary company of the Xinjiang Corps. After years of development, the company has become the leading regional animal husbandry in Xinjiang in the four major sectors of vaccines, breeding and food, feed, and agricultural product processing.
As of 2018, the company’s vaccines / feeds / agricultural products processing / breeding contributed 36%, 42%, 10%, and 13% of gross profit, and 63%, 26%, 13%, and -1% of profit, respectively.
In general, the company also increased the layout of the breeding sector, and achieved 680,000 heads in 2018, becoming an absolute leader in Xinjiang.
Breeding: The industry is booming, and the company’s listing is highly certain.
Under the non-plague situation, the industry’s production capacity has been reduced by more than 30% and is still in the process of elimination. The length of this cycle will be higher than ever.
In 2018, the company’s Xinjiang and Henan market rate was about 2: 1. Due to the minority breeding density in Xinjiang, the impact of the epidemic was relatively small. It is estimated that in Xinjiang in 2019/2020, it will contribute about 700/100 million market.
The Henan area has progressed to complete the construction of pig farms in 2019. Considering the current production capacity and the release progress of new production capacity, we expect that Henan’s contribution in 2019/2020 will contribute 200,000 to 500,000.
In addition, the company also has a long-term production capacity plan of 500,000 heads in Gansu, which is expected to be released in 2020/2021.
Overall, we estimate that the company will sell about 90/150/212 / 2.5 million heads in 2019/2020/2021/2022.
Xinjiang pig prices have now started to increase, and the spread between the country and the country has narrowed steadily. It is expected that the company’s subsequent profit elasticity will be huge.
Vaccine: The political leader is stable and is expected to benefit from the concept of a non-pestic vaccine.
As the company with the most internal harvesting licenses in the industry, Tiankang leads the market in foot-and-mouth disease, small anti-chasing animal disease, and disease harvesting.
Short-term companies have also increased 南京桑拿论坛 the development of market vaccines. Foot-and-mouth disease pig OA two-valent vaccines have been listed in March this year. It is one of the three companies in the industry with swine oa products. The swine fever E2 vaccine is the only one in the industry that can distinguish wild venom.And immune-infected vaccines have been selling well since listing.
Overall, the company’s vaccine is expected to be affected by non-blast disease in 2019 by about 10% -20%.
In addition, the company is also discussing a strategic cooperation agreement with Harmony Research, which is expected to benefit from the launch of non-blast vaccines in the future.
Feed: Sales volume has increased steadily, and the cost is relatively advantageous.
The company’s feed is mainly distributed in Xinjiang and Henan. Due to the entire corn procurement cost 深圳桑拿网 in Xinjiang (about 200 yuan / ton lower than the national average price), the company’s feed business gross margin ranks at the forefront of the industry (it has been increased to 14 in 2018).
In 2018, the company invested in Xinjiang Huitong and became the largest corn collector and storer in Xinjiang (50% market share).
The layout of the upstream raw material field is expected to further help the company’s feed business to reduce costs and open new profit margins.
As the company’s poultry feed accounts for up to 45% of its sales volume, driven by the boom in poultry breeding, it is expected that the company’s feed sales in 2019/2020 will continue to increase slightly.
Risk factors: Non-plague epidemic is further intensified, recovery is not as good as expected, and competition is intensified.
Investment suggestion: The company ‘s main business of vaccine, feed, and agricultural product processing is limited by the impact of non-epidemic diseases. It is expected to remain stable in 19/20, giving 30 times the value of vaccines and 10 times the value of feed and agricultural products, corresponding to a market value of about 6.6 billion.
The layout of live pig breeding in Xinjiang and Henan has obvious geographical advantages, and there is a deterministic mutation in the slaughter. It is expected that 90/150/212 / 2.5 million slaughter will be achieved in 19/20/21/22.
Taking into account the impact of the conversion of stocks and changes in Henan aquaculture costs, we have slightly lowered our 2019 earnings forecast, raised our company’s earnings forecast for 2020/2021, and forecasted earnings per share for 19/20/21 of 0.
27 yuan (previously predicted EPS0 for 19/21).
26 yuan), maintain “Buy” rating, target price of 15.
Sunshine Lighting (600261)： 19Q1 revenue improvement has decreased but gross margin has improved significantly
Sunshine Lighting (600261): 19Q1 revenue improvement has decreased but gross margin has improved significantly
Core point of view: 19Q1 revenue improved, but the gross profit margin increased significantly in 2019Q1 the company achieved revenue12.31 ppm, with a ten-year average of 13.12%; net profit attributable to mother 1.5.9 billion, an annual increase of 124.46%, mainly due to the increase in fair value of equity of Great Wall Securities held by the company by approximately 0.950,000 yuan; net profit deducted from non-mother 0.63 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.11%.19Q1 single quarter consolidated gross profit margin was 28.68%, an increase of about 7 times in 18Q1 in a year, and an increase of about 4 over 18Q4.The four averages are mainly affected by factors such as falling raw material prices. Transition channel + private label business, continuous expansion of related selling expenses The company’s selling expenses in 19Q1 were approximately 1.01 yuan, an annual increase of 24.25%; selling expenses 8.21%, an increase of about 2 per year.5 units.19Q1 management costs are about 0.890,000 yuan, an increase of 47 in ten years.20%; management expenses 7.24%, an increase of about 3 units per year.From the perspective of the company’s medium- and long-term development strategy, it will gradually shift to its own channel + brand in the future. Therefore, we expect that the company will still have a series of related expenses growth in the short term.However, in the medium and long term, the company is expected to gradually turn to lighting companies through channels and brands, with longer-term sustainable growth momentum. Earnings forecast and rating Taking into account the good trend of profit indicators such as the company’s gross profit margin and the impact of changes in fair value in Q1, we expect the company to be in 2019?In 2021, the EPS will be 0.34/0.33/0.38 yuan / share, the current sustainable corresponding PE for 2019 is 13.6 times.Among the companies in the same industry, according to the brand power of Op Lighting and Sanxiong Aurora, 2019?The average PE in 2020 will be 20.5X / 16.6X, and Debon Lighting, which is mainly foundry, corresponds to 2019?In 2020, the PE will be 20 respectively.3X / 17.5 times.Considering 2019, we still maintain the company’s reasonable value to 4.The view of 98 yuan / share remains unchanged, corresponding to a PE of 14 in 2019.6 times, give the company a “Buy” rating. Risks indicate the risk of product price 北京夜生活网 fluctuations; the risk of rising raw material prices; the risk of customer order disruption; the risk of conversion failure.
Yili shares (600887)： vigorous repurchase highlights the development of confidence incentive mechanism to promote subsequent improvement
Yili shares (600887): vigorous repurchase highlights the development of confidence incentive mechanism to promote subsequent improvement
Investment Highlights: Incident: The company’s announcement is intended to be no more than 35.
00 / yuan repurchase company shares, the repurchase quantity is not less than 1.
5.2 billion shares, not more than 3.
0.4 billion shares (2 of the total share capital on the date of the announcement).
0%). The repurchase period is no more than 12 months from today. The repurchased shares will be used to implement distribution incentives.
The repurchased shares are appropriately transferred or replaced within three years after the disclosure of the repurchase results and the announcement of share changes.
The actual number of completions depends on market conditions. It is estimated based on the number of repurchased shares and the upper limit of the price that the estimated use of funds will not exceed 106.
Investment Rating and Evaluation: We maintain our 910 revenue forecast for 19-21.
200 million, an increase of 14 each year.
8%; Maintain 71-year profit forecast 71.
9 trillion, an increase of 11 each year.
2%, corresponding EPS is 1.
45 yuan, the latest closing price corresponding to PE in 2019-20 is 24, 22 times.
We are optimistic that under the background of tight raw milk supply and demand in 19 years, and the increase in milk prices, we have obtained more milk sources through our strong control to ensure the steady growth of our income.Marginal improvement in capacity. Maintain BUY rating.
The proposed large-scale repurchase is used for equity incentives, improving the long-term incentive mechanism, and demonstrating development confidence: in the company’s history, it has launched equity incentive plans in 2006 and 2016, and employee stock plans in 2014 (in ten phases), The proposed large-scale repurchase of shares and plans to launch a new equity incentive plan within the next three years (the repurchase program has been approved by the board of directors, if the new equity incentive is launched, it still needs to be approved by the shareholders meeting).
The number of shares to be repurchased by the company this time accounts for 2 of the total share capital.
From 5% to 5%, if all equity incentives are used, the scope of benefits and the speed of incentives will be diversified, and the three-year validity period provides a good basis for the company’s comprehensive accelerated incentive mechanism.
We believe that the company’s choice to repurchase shares at the current point of time demonstrates the company’s full 杭州夜网论坛 confidence in its intrinsic value and helps the company’s long-term development.
The high demand-side boom continues, and the estimated cost growth outweighs the impact of the industry structure. We are optimistic about Yili’s competitive advantages in milk supply: the company disclosed its 2019 business plan in its 18-year annual report, and plans to achieve a total operating income of 90 billion yuan and an increase of 13.
1%, profit budget of 7.6 billion US dollars, basically flat every year.
According to the channel feedback from January to February, terminal demand continued to be booming, Yili’s terminal sales growth still maintained a double-digit fast growth rate, and growth of high-end products such as Anmusi Jindian further accelerated from the fourth quarter, and the product structure optimization was obvious.
From the perspective of the competition pattern, we believe that the impact of the increase in raw milk costs on the downstream competition pattern needs to be increased. In 19 years, under the background of domestic raw milk supply and demand becoming tight, the primary basis for dairy companies to achieve income growth is sufficient quality milk.The increase in source supply and market share means the increase in milk source share.
Yili has realized embedded milk management, in-depth strategic cooperation and other methods to obtain milk sources. It has achieved strong control over milk sources. From the performance of the Spring Festival season, Yili’s market share is still significantly increasing.
At the same time, due to the tight milk supply and the relatively small space for dairy companies to invest, the industry’s competitive landscape has gradually eased from the perspective of dimensionality. Therefore, even if the company’s profit indicators are relatively conservative, we are not pessimistic.
The long-term development strategy is clear, and it is steadily moving towards the top five hundred billion: in the medium and long term, the company continues to actively promote new product expansion and overseas layout. Based on dairy products, the development of multi-category integrated food giants has taken shape.
Continue to consolidate optimistic that the company will continue to increase its share of dairy products through deep channel cultivation and category innovation, and at the same time realize its new category cultivation and layout through its own strong brand and channel thrust. It is expected that the top five will reach 100 billion in 2020. Catalyst for gradual growth: core products grow faster than expected, market competition improves faster than expected